Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis financial crisis

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The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But Didier Sornette and his Financial Crisis Observatory have plotted a set …

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Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis

Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis

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Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis
financial crisis
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42 comments

Wonder of Electronics 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

1415

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Robert Simoneau 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

The entire global economic system is a two stroke engine consisting of greed and fear. Greed pushes and creates bubbles, bubbles everywhere, and fear eventually pops these bubbles. Since there no legal consequences to run away greed-speculation, bubbles will continue, our current stock market bubble will eventually or soon pop. The recent tax breaks given to large corporations to reshore their assets from overseas tax shelters were simply used to buy up their own stock to increase price per share; something for nothing. No new products, markets or growth in existing markets were or have been developed with these reshored tax sheltered funds, simply playing with supply and demand. Another dynamic is mergers and acquisitions which provide for economies of scale and subsequent massive job loss. Add to this volatile mix the idea of profit maximization where every penny is squeezed out of supply chains to optimize the profits of large multinationals. What is the consequence, growing numbers of people, families with limited discretionary money. Finally, the trigger is fear where stocks are dumped sometimes by computer algorithms.

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Jon Rita 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

and did it predict the current crisis?

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Keane Daill 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Seriously not worth your time to watch this guy. The accent is NOT the problem. Here's the gist: "We have this "'observatory' full of really smart people. We can predict the future of statistical outlier events. I'm not going to tell you how we do it. 'But you should all be VERY afraid that if government doesn't intervene, you'll be sorry."

RE-TAR-DED

I was searching for a method to identify the problem signs at the end of a credit expansion ( which BTW are always fueled by the government that this jack@ss says will save us). I got no such satisfaction.

waste of time

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james flana 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Are global imbalances a result of a world savings glut and manipulation by Chinese authorities or a U.S. mortgage market so awash with cash that you could get a 100 percent mortgage with no income, no job and no assets?

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Thomas F. 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Why is it on planet with millions of Youtube users this lecture has only been watched 140K times ??

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spideydouble 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Trash. The 2008 economic collapse was not surprising.

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Drexel Mildraff 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

I've been familiar with Prof Sornette's work for many years. He is one of few geniuses working in academia today. What a pleasure it was hearing him speak.

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yeah7598 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

he tells us nothing. I would advise Didier Sornette in the video to read the works of Dr. Steve Keen concerning the build up of excessive private debt and excessive growth rates in this in relation to speculation and bubbles. And read New World Disorder at https://www.amazon.com/New-World-Disorder-Terrorism-Democracy-ebook/dp/B076Z7HLR9 to educate himself about bubbles and crashes.

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Steven Oylarov 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

lol Bitcoin bubble 2013.

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Gerar Nawab 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

You can tell a bubble is a bubble by the composition and psychology of the participating investors. When an investment becomes viewed as a popular and easy way to make money, and a broad portion of the investment community is throwing money at it, you have a good idea that a bubble is brewing. I invite anybody interested in investment, economics, philosophy, books or movies to subscribe to my channel. Leave some questions or comments about topics you would like to hear about, if you want.

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Clinton Lunn 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

People cannot understand him because he is using proper English.

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Limitless 1 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

so practicaly you can't predict the future
a lot of bla bla bla , what a waste of my time

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Greig Sanderson 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Dragon bullshit

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Matt Alexander 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

if he was betting on a bubble popping 4 years ago, he lost money

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Peter Kapeel 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuvbghZuM8U&t=2314s
This video is a bit hard to follow due to the accents, sound quality, and the level of sophistication of the conversation. It is worth checking out, however. Nassim Taleb (Black Swan) and Didier Sornette (the speaker of the video above) debating these rare events and their predictability.

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WICKEDLEE LOOPY 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

The factors that determine a crash are 2 things. Supply & demand.
2008 mortgage brokers giving record number of "NINJA" loans.
Next……
Interest only loans… reaching over 51% of all mortgages will be the tipping point. At this rate it will be 2020! People buying houses they cannot afford…..SIMPLE. impressing other people will cost you dearly!

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Askformoreinfo whichyouwontget 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Cutting a 17 min TED talk about bubbles short: Bubble Genisis = Low Interest rates. Bubble maturity/ pop = Interest Rates rise. 17 min of tedious research compacted. Thank me later.

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Askformoreinfo whichyouwontget 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Can you predict randomness? Are we god yet? Can we predict herd behavior? Can we predict the weather? Answer is no. It's wishfull thinking, and this ted title is the kind of talks you look at when your bored af and seek "dumbening" entertainment. Btw, the best you can do is statistical prediction. Good luck with that – James Simons bought up all geniuses in science areas.

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Mike Goldstone 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Very thought-provoking…..would love to see what he suggests for the emergent increase of general interest rates in the world's largest mrkets.

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domsau2 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Good extrapolation is not a stright line, but a curved one, at 3:44.

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sofwan 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

With the end of an era, and a 90 million dollar funeral….
I have made a detailed explanation on the financial crisis.
I hope this video is good.
https://youtu.be/3o0LTJaM4D8

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Feta Cheezz 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

no mention of leading economic indicators like the ISM index.

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Sami Parkar 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

where did all that money go?

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theresbob 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Explain where the losses went. Was it cash or simply paper? Why does it trickle down? Is the bettor using money that if lost, effects others? Should that be legal then…as it wouldn't be his money?

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Nice Trade 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

LOL… well some-one needed to show this to the Goldman Sacs /JP Morgan cartel..

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Millsy Kooksy 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

So relevant right now

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michael maghella 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

any prediction about bitcoin bubble?

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THESocialJusticeWarrior 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

he was dead wrong. bubble still hasn't popped.

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rimservices 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Wow, so how was that big bubble burst of 2013, Prof Sornette? Another self-important quack claiming to predict the markets.

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Trang Vương 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

It's ridiculous how many ignorant people come here not to dialogue with knowledge but to nitpick a respectable academic of his accent, which is not even that strong.

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Doodelay 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

not convinced he was telling the whole truth

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Joysuf AlQuba 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Another one is coming if few years & the biggest will be after the electronic money that will shake up down the world societies, wars & planed terror attack will be among those years !! Enjoy the Joy muy soy heheho

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Robbie Goldman 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Ask Rockefeller family, they are planing those ahead

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Beta K 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Sustained growth. How? First of all, without democracy a few tend to take it all. With corporate capitalism, the ultimate goal is to take more than is given. That's called profit. With the increased efficiency of profit maximization, those in control make the decision when to water the garden, how much to water the garden and if to apply fertilizer, how often or when? With greed and no checks and balances, those in control of the economic garden, kill it. To this day in spite of his back peddling rambles soon after the economic downturn, Alan Greenspan has not learned one damn thing. There are too many more just like him.

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Anthony Bell 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Didier Sornette is a professor from ETH Zurich, one of the best universities in Europe.
All those dislikes because the cowards/sheeple can't handle the truth xD

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João Carreira 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Interesting talk but very hard to follow the strong accent.

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Jaylene ellis 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

babon? 

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Jalreal 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

Trying to analyze the 07 08 crisis by looking at stocks is incoherent. It was in extremely complicated derivatives and the perverse incentives surrounding the speculative frenzy in those illiquid markets.

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HUSSAIN HADDAD 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

This is another out-of-touch academic selling us theories that do not have solid real life experiment. Myself as a scientist/engineer always rely on tests to confirm any analysis even though past analytical results were confirmed by experiment. The problem with these predictions are many parameters interact nonlinearly and you never know when and how a crash would occur.  for example Hurricane prediction and modeling is based on allot of measurements, past history and nonlinear dynamics. You can see it is coming but not accurately know where it is going to hit and what time it will hit. The financial market is random event which is heavily influenced by consumer psychology, government policies and a host of other unpredictable factors. I guess Professor Didier should invest all his assets in the financial market since he can predict the outcome. He will be extremely rich !!!

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MarkTheShark 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

It has been a year since this guy bragged about his predictions. He said the Nasdaq was in a bubble in May of 2013. It was around 3530 at that point. It is currently at 4300. 

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LL M 27/09/2021 - 10:06 Chiều

He sounds ridiculous. Learn to pronounce BUBBLE.

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